The UK election exit poll phenomenon.


Seems what Professor Curtis has to say at 22:00 might save us staying up until 5am.

This is from The Telegraph.

Three things strike me from this series of graphs;

  1. The exit polls aren’t far out
  2. The decline of Labour and the rise of the Conservatives (inexorably).
  3. The rise of others (i.e. SNP) in 2015.

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If the polls are right the Tories will have increased their power in four consecutive elections.

We live in sad times.

Survation Poll puts Labour 1 point behind in UK election with two days to go.


Guardian UK election poll of polls

Guardian poll of polls @ 6 June

It’s fairly obvious, when you look at the poll of polls (and there are a lot of them) that there is a very, very big Labour bounce.  And that one point lag (in one poll only) was today.

But while the Labour Party are making colossal strides if you put best fit lines through those graphs the Tories are still doing OK.

Perhaps (no probably) enough.

Now the question is, when you look at the purple line, where is this vote going?

Maybe it’s coming back (following a disillusioned Brexit campaign) from staunch Labour BACK again to Labour.  But possibly to Tory.

In Scotland there can be no question that the SNP has had a lacklustre campaign due to Nicola’s, perhaps Ill advised, 2nd referendum call at just the wrong time.  She has backtracked massively by leaving it out of the manifesto but Ruth Davidson has made hay.

I expect the Tories to fare rather better than Labour.  The Lib Dems may make a gain or two but this will be a country dominated by Nationalist MP’s on Friday morning, only the Panda gag will probably be consigned to history.

Jeremy has fought an awesome campaign (see above).  Aided by Theresa May’s utter ineptitude and abetted by a poor show from Diane Abbot (no I’m not being racist or sexist as the Guardian are saying critics are) who has been off her game.

Boris has been a farce.  So what’s new there?

And I think jumpy puppy Tim Farron has just been too jumpy puppy and lacked credibility.  He, like me, is a gusher.

Shame actually. I like him.

I’m surprised at the Green decline because their new joint leader is dead good.

I’m just hoping this is the continuing direction of travel.  But I fear a sting in the tail.

Shy tories. who are you?

Classic shy Tory graph.

Do you think Nicola would take a hung parliament and do a Lib Dems and sell their souls?

Obviously the Union thing is a deal breaker for her and Jezza but if she was bold enough to put independence to one side for five years, for the sake of the social democracy that both parties believe in, and keep the Tories out, whilst brokering a deal to filibuster Brexit negotiations (no deal is better than a bad deal), so that it just sort of goes away she’d have done a good job.

And so would Jezza.

But I may be being naive.

Thoughts?